Sarah Palin will wow cultural conservatives in areas where they may not have come out to vote before the selection. This is right out of Karl Rove's strategy of getting more of your own to show up and vote.
However, in many of the swing states that Bush carried in 2004, there were anti gay ballot measures to motivate the cultural conservatives to vote. There are very few of these measures on the ballots in those key states in 2008. Palin may not be enough for them to get out and vote. Clearly Rove felt in 2004 that Bush would not have been enough, thus the ballot measures.
In fact, as Palin's cultural views become better known -- she oppose abortion in all cases and opposes the use of birth control pills and condoms even among married couples -- she will undoubtedly scare the hell out of the soccer moms and 98% of Hillary voters. In fact, many of these women may feel insulted by this choice in that McCain and the GOP think they are stupid and would bypass their own interest (reproductive and economic) to vote for the ticket due to gender and anger that Hillary was not the nominee.
While historic for the GOP in selecting their first woman on a national ticket, this choice may be the worst selection by a major party nominee for President in modern times.
